PUNTER V PRO. WEEKLY FIGHT PICKS.

Each week, Spitbucket's James McDonnell, will go head to head with our professional bookmaker skanksta, who works for one of the biggest UK betting firms. To establish who is the master when it comes to betting on fights.

Each will make their picks for the week. James focusing on who the likely winner will be, whilst Skanksta offers advice on the best value according to the odds. All odds are on offer at oddschecker.com at the time of writing.

This week for starters, we've chosen to concentrate on the two biggest fights, Marquez v Katsidis, and Carl Froch v Arthur Abraham.

James McDonnell

Manuel Marquez v Michael Katsidis. Lightweight Unification fight. Saturday 27^th November.

Marquez v Katsidis is a fascinating encounter as there are a lot of factors involved.

On gut instinct without analysis, one would naturally favour Marquez. He is after all a current top 10 P4P, a future hall-of-famer, and one of the toughest Mexican warriors of his era. However, there are a number of caveats to this.

Marquez is 37, and has been in some punishing fights over his career, including two brutal fights with Pacquaio, containing four knockdowns, and more recently, a very hard fought win in his first win over Juan Diaz.

Marquez and Katsidis share two common opponents. The first is Joel Casamayor. In 2008 Marquez stopped Casamayor in 11 rounds. In the same year, Casamayor after starting with two knock-downs of Katsidis, had to come back from the brink of being stopped, being punched through the ropes by a surging Katsidis in the 6th. However, Casamayor proved too savvy, and Katsidis too raw, eventually Katsidis walked onto a huge left hook in the 10th which took his legs away. The follow up prompted the referee to correctly waive the contest over. Marquez stopped Casamayor in a nip and tuck fight in the 11th in Casmayors very next fight. The second is Juan Diaz, who Marquez has beaten twice, once by KO in a brutal give and take war, and once by lop-sided decision. Katsidis lost a close and some would say controversial decision against Diaz. A clear edge for Marquez in both cases - but the question is; how much has he slid since then?

Katsidis, is at 30 I think, in his prime in terms of his physical attributes, and also the level of experience he has gained. Back in 2007 when he beat Graham earl in a blood and guts classic, he had never before fought out of Australia. Since then he has faced Casamayor, Diaz and Jesus Chavez. Katsidis must surely have learnt from his defeat from by Casamayor, and has improved technically, to fight behind something approaching a guard. He will never be mistaken for Willie Pep, but he has learned the hard way that at top level, disregarding your opponents punching power leads to disappointment. During his most recent fight, a destruction of British prospect Kevin Mitchell, he showed improved punch placement and defence, but then, Marquez is no Mitchell.

The gulf in skill between the two men is pretty big, and indeed most of Katsidis' chance of winning come from him being able to exert a pressure that Marquez' 37 year old body cannot meet. I think that unlikely to happen as Marquez though old, looks far from shot. Diaz, who beat Katsidis, was not able to overpower Marquez, and in their first fight ended up being stopped himself, despite a terrific effort.

The fight is of massive importance to both men. Katsidis lost his brother recently to a suspected drug overdose, and despite this chose to fight on. Mike Tyson will no doubt remember the effect that a bereavement can have in galvanising a fighter's heart and abilities. It produced arguably the biggest upset in boxing history when he lost to rank outsider Buster Douglas. There is no guarantee of that of course here, but Katsidis, never the reticent type, is likely to give it everything he has.

For Marquez, he has indicated that he seeks a third and most likely final fight with Manny Pacquaio, after a draw and a narrow defeat, he would love one last chance to record a win, over the man who is widely regarded as the number one fighter in the world pound-for-pound.

For this reason, I think Marquez will try and box his way to a win and I think Marquez simply knows too many tricks, and still possesses the toughness and ability to fight back when pressed hard to make Katsidis pay for his onrushing tactics. Though Katsidis has improved since the Casamayor fight, it won't be enough to make the difference. There is always the chance that Marquez grows old overnight, but failing that Marquez wins this handily. Marquez isn't a murderous puncher at 135 lbs, and I think Katsidis will probably go the distance.

I could see a late stoppage  loss as a desperate Katsidis piles forward, walking onto big counters but on balance, I'm going to go for a Marquez points win, after some scary moments early in the fight, and some pitched battles in the middle to late rounds. Over the final quarter of the fight, I expect it to be all Marquez as he seals an emphatic points win. My own money, £40 of it, is on Marquez to prevail on points.

Betting line – Marquez points.

Froch v Abraham (Vacant WBC Super Middleweight Title) Saturday 27^th November 

This is an incredibly tough one to call. Both men have a single defeat on their records, and both have recorded that loss during the perhaps ill-fated super six tournament, which has seen the likely retirement from boxing of Jermaine Taylor and Mikkel Kessler. It is Kessler's probable retirement which has made this bout for a vacant title.

First, the similarities. Both men are murderous punchers, Froch with his long shots and uppercuts, Abraham with short hooks and straight punches. Both men too are known for having bags of stamina, physical strength, and explosive power. Of the two, Froch is the naturally bigger man, but Abraham, for me, the slightly more explosive, and more importantly, accurate puncher.

The major difference between the two men is in stature and in their defensive capabilities. Froch is much the bigger man, with very long arms, (though surprisingly only a 3 inch reach advantage, according to boxrec), whilst Abraham is squat and compact, with a barrel chest and thick set frame. I note that Abraham is thicker in thigh, calf and bicep. Power generally comes from the man with the bigger thicker legs, though not always. I think there is very little, if anything in terms of physical strength between the two. Froch's power is at range, whilst Abraham is the harder hitter in close.

Abraham has a definite edge in defence, insofar as he possesses one. Froch is defensively very fallible, relying on his ability to hold a shot, which so far has not failed him. If ever he faced a fighter who was going to crack his chin, Abraham is that fighter. Abraham fights behind a high peekaboo style guard, stalking his opponent looking for openings, often taking a while to get going. Froch is also for me a little more static than Abraham, his wide footed stance not allowing him much option to get out of the way when opponents are on the attack.

Their most telling common opponent, is I think Jermaine Taylor. Though he lost to both by KO in the dying seconds of the last round, Taylor was ahead on two cards against Froch, whilst losing on all three against Abraham. A massive single right hook floored Taylor for the count against Abraham, whilst Froch needed a sustained and unanswered attack to end the fight. This suggests Abraham is the more versatile boxer.

Andre Dirrell, another common opponent won on a disqualification against a surging Abraham in their fight, after taking an early lead, whilst against Froch, he ran like a thief most of the night, but arguably landed all the most telling shots, and I think, showed Froch up as a little pedestrian. Froch recorded a win but was far from impressive, still he at least did beat Dirrell.

Both men have shown they are incredibly resilient in the ring. Abraham survived an horrific beating at the hands of Edison Miranda, which resulted in a broken jaw to prevail in their first fight. Froch has taken absolute bombs off Pascal and Taylor without wilting. Andre Dirrell also hurt Froch with a big shot in their fight, that shook the Nottingham man to his boots.

For me the crux is, is the edge in defence for Abraham. He fights out of a very high guard, and exploits small openings to land crisp heavy handed straight counters. He builds the pressure over many rounds, often sacrificing a few at the beginning. Froch himself is usually a slow starter, so it is likely there won't be much in the early rounds, but the fight will heat up and turn, I think, into a barn burner. Froch loves a tear up, and Abraham is just the man to give it to him. Abraham is going to get hit, but not as often as Froch will, and I think the scores of the fight will hinge on that fact. Either man could produce a stoppage win, but I don't think that the most likely outcome, due to the determination of both protagonists.

It's hard to rule out almost any outcome with two such big puncher, but I think the most likely outcome however, is a close win for Abraham. I wouldn't rule a draw out either. On this occasion, I won't bet, as it is so tight, but if wanted to, my money would be on Abraham W12. 

Betting line – Abraham Points.

Skanktsa

Marquez vs Katsidis is an easy fight to put numbers to - we have a clear favourite, and an established form line with common opponents.

With two such consumate professionals there's no need to worry about poor training-camps, weight-making difficulties and such like - both guys will turn up with their 'A' game. Although JMM can brawl and blast and Katsidis has improved his defence and footwork, essentially Marquez will play the matador, Katsidis the bull.
Katsidis has two ways to win - if he has improved enough, then his physicality, workrate and strength can overcome the class gap and dominate the naturally, smaller, older Mexican. Or, he could find the great Marquez - veteran of some of the great, elite-level wars in modern boxing - has lost that little bit of timing, resilience and je ne sais quoi that makes the difference for elite athletes.

For Marquez, all he has to do is be as good as he ever was and he should win. His granite chin, allied with the ability to fight back hard when needed, should see him through the inevitable rough spells. His mastery of boxing will take care of the rest of the fight.

All this must then be put in to numbers - a %age chance of each guy winning plus the draw. I'll start with the draw - this is a closely matched fight, likely to go the distance and it may well be a question of what the judges prefer - Katsidis' greater effort or Marquez's greater accuracy. The draw is likelier than usual - I'll give it 4%. I'm quite pro Katsidis chances here, but I'll still give JMM 62% chance of winning and 34% to Katsidis. The next step is to give each fighter a KO %age - assuming they have won.

This is the second essential component of pricing a boxing match and it's the most difficult to trade InPlay. Marquez is one of the most accurate punchers in the sport and Katsidis has a wild 'come-in' style that has seen him in terrible trouble many times - even when on the verge of victory - so Marquez must have a decent chance of scoring a stoppage. However, not only will it be tough to stop such a big, determined lightweight as Katsidis, I don't really imagine it will be in Marquez's game plan. Katsidis must have a higher KO%age than Marquez - he's more aggressive and powerful, but also more likely to NEED a KO to win. Nevertheless, Marquez hasn't been stopped by a who's who of boxing and has a great defence - it must be odds against.

I gave Marquez a 30% chance of a KO (IF he's won remember - not overall) and Katsidis 40%.

Whether you take five minutes to come up with the numbers, or spend weeks analysing videos and old fight reports, that is the process you must follow to begin trying to bet value on boxing. When it's finished you're left with percentages like this...


JMM 62% (19KO/43PTS)
MK 34% (14KO/20PTS)
DRAW 4%

As a bookie, I'll wrap a profit margin around those numbers and let the punters bet with me. As a keen punter myself, I'll look to see how my numbers compare with the odds offered by others. If I give any event a better chance of happening than the odds imply, I'll bet. Staking plans are important - but it's a quite a dull subject for a boxing site, so we'll leave it for some other time.

As a pro punter, I'll often do things that seem counter-intuitive and that is certainly the case here.

My big bet is JMM points - I know I'm pro Katsidis, but my figure of 43% is SOO much bigger than the 5/2 available that I'll be getting involved. Strangely, the second bet that appeals is Katsiidis points ! 12/1 is simply too big for a fighter of his skills to win on the cards. Just to muddy the waters further I rate the draw at 28/1 a tiny edge - not normally enough to bet on, but with the very real danger that it goes the distance I'd have a small saver on it.

New visitors to the site will understand why The Punter gets frustrated with me, when he asks , "Who've you bet on ?" and I come up with an answer like, Katsidis, Marquez and the draw ! However, I've been betting value outcomes like this for many years as both bookie and professional - if it ain't broke don't fix it. For my fantasy bet for the blog, I'll put the following staking up, but I assure you - I WILL be doing something very similar with my own cash !

Pick
8 pts Marquez by Dec/TD @ 11/4
1.5 pts Katsidis by Dec/TD @ 12/1
0.5 pts draw @ 28/1

Froch vs Abraham.

Just as the first fight was easy - this is hard. Anything can happen and there are a lot imponderables. It's difficult to even say who the favourite is with much confidence. Abraham's best work has been at middle and we don't know if his rugged 'power game' will really work against such a big, tough opponent as Froch. I can see Froch doing well in this fight - he's been made to look very ordinary by speed and movement, but that isn't Abraham's forte. Against a less mobile target, the Englishman can bring his powerful long-armed jabs in to play. Abraham is a notorious slow starter and I'd be considering backing Froch just to lay off when he takes the first few rounds.  Equally, there's a little voice in my head saying, "Froch is a KO loss waiting to happen - you can't keep relying on a great chin as your defence at world level".

A very tough fight to pick then. Abraham must have the bigger KO percentage here - Froch's defence sees to that, so I come up with...

AA 52 (24KO/28pts)
CF 44 (16KO/28pts)
Draw 4
I won't put more than a cup of tea on this , but for the purposes of the article, I'll pick...
Froch pts @ a standout 10/3 for 9 £pounds, and
Abraham KO in rounds 10-12 @ 10/1 for 1 point.

James McDonnell